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Calculating Odds & Outs

As a note
The odds I calculate are based on around 8-10 people playing in the game and include all burned and future burned cards and players cards already totaled out. While the actual odds can vary greatly depending on the number of players, this should give you a good idea of what you are going against.


The Situation
Poker is a game of odds. It is very important to always keep track of what your odds are for making your hand, and then using those in your play. These odds are calculated based on the number of outs that are possible, when compared to how many cards there are left and how many players have participated/are participating. You will find yourself in many situations where you know you are not winning at the moment, but by calculated odds, you know you should stay in the hand. Many times there may be 5 or so players in a hand even if the bet was raised all around. Let's say you have suited connectors of 5 of Diamonds and 6 of Diamonds (not a particularly great starting hand, but good enough to play). The flop comes as a 7d, 8s, and Kd giving you nothing immediately, but many outs. Should you now stay in the hand?


The Math
You must first calculate your odds of creating a hand by calculating the number of outs you have. In this specific example you have 1uite a few outs. First there is the straight draw and along with that, a flush draw. The straight draw creates a total of 8 outs for you (all the 4’s and all the 9’s) while the flush draw makes 9 (the remaining assumed diamonds) but remember you can’t count the 4d and the 9d two times giving you 15 outs so far. This is quite enough to let you stay in the hand. Now, you have to figure you have 2 cards and there are already three flopped cards dealt to the table. That results with the 47 cards not yet seen (50-2-3 = 47). This gives you 15 outs along with 47 more cards not yet dealt, which is a 54% chance of getting that straight or flush draw you were hoping for. Finally, use your logic based on the players in the pot to decide if your chances are lower or greater than that 54% chance, which in this case, they would probably be a bit lower.


Memorize!
Calculating the math for these odds would be too difficult in a real game so I will go ahead and give you a chart that displays the odds of creating your hand, based on the outs you have after the flop has been dealt. I recommend that you get yourself a good feel of the chart here if you want to play holdem at a higher level, as you will always have the calculated odds in your favor.


Using Outs in Real Play
It's imperative that you do not become too attached to your hand despite all of your outs. With our example, chances are you are way behind at this point in time. All you have is 9 high where there is the possibility that someone has paired at least the pair of Kings, an over pair, or possibly going for the better flush. There are many factors that you should take in account if you proceed playing in the hand: the size of any bets made compared to the total number of chips in the pot, the players that are playing at the table, the amount of chips you have in relation to everyone else. This may seem almost mind boggling to read on paper (or screen for this matter), but it comes naturally with time and when using patience while playing. There is not foolproof method to this game that will tell you whether the odds are in your favor or not. Even if you calculate yourself having a good chance at making a hand, there is always a chance that someone else will have better, or that you may not get any outs. I highly recommend that you refrain from risking all of your chips on a draw such as the ones I have discussed.